Shadow Wars: A Look Into Yemen’s Proxy War
By Anika Bajpai
Twenty-nine dead. Thirty wounded. All children making their way home on a bus through a market in early August of 2018 in the Yemeni city of Saada.[i] Lives caught in the crosshairs of a deadly proxy war between two powerful nations. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is playing out across the Middle East in the form of proxy wars, and Yemen is the latest theater.
In proxy wars, larger, competing powers partner with opposing sides in a local dispute. Each power’s endgame is not simply just to support its chosen domestic ally, but to strengthen its own state. Proxy wars provide an opportunity for larger countries to further their own interests by influencing local conflicts. Countries have much to gain from backing a winning horse: from access to resources or damage to a rival, the spoils from proxy wars can make a real difference.
Bad Blood Between Saudi Arabia and Iran
Many consider the war in Yemen to be the latest incarnation of regional Iran-Saudi clashes that have played out over the past few decades— from the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s to the ongoing Syrian Civil War. Conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been attributed to sectarian differences, as Saudi Arabia is a Sunni dominant country while Iran is a primarily Shia country. However, the sources of conflict have more to do with political influence than religious conflict.[ii] In the 1970s, both Iran and Saudi Arabia were aligned with the US and served as integral parts of its “Twin Pillar” policy to maintain the stability of the Gulf.[iii] After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, a popular uprising that overthrew the US-backed monarchy and established an Islamic republic, Iran became an enemy of the US and Saudi Arabia’s rival for influence in the Middle East, which is still considered one of the US’s strongest allies in the region.[iv] The current animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia stems from not only their religious differences, but also from their contrasting political systems and affiliations.
Since then, the Saudi Arabian monarchy has been wary of Iranian eagerness to spread their revolutionary ideas, countering many of their initiatives to gain regional power. The Saudis even went as far as to establish the Gulf Cooperation Council, a political and economic organization of Gulf countries, to offset Iranian influence.[v] The Arab Spring, however, has made it much more difficult for Saudi Arabia to maintain the status quo of a region in flux.
On a Local Level
In the Yemeni civil war, local conflict exists between two key groups: the official government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, and the Supreme Political Council. While Hadi’s government is supported by a Saudi-led coalition of local countries, the Supreme Political Council— commonly viewed as an Iranian ally— is composed of the Houthis, Zaydi Shia revivalists based in the North of the country, and the forces of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Conflict between Hadi’s government and the Supreme Political Council is deeply rooted in Yemen’s history, and that rift is being taken advantage of by Saudi Arabia and Iran to further their own interests.[vi]
Since Yemen’s reunification in 1990, the central government has been tasked with suppressing secessionist movements in the South and dealing with insurrections from increasingly dissatisfied Houthi rebels.[vii] In 2011, these existing tensions were further inflamed by the Arab Spring, during which many Yemenis began protesting for greater transparency and change within the central government.[viii]
In order to pacify protesters, in 2012 the Yemeni government replaced former-President Saleh with his then-Vice President, Hadi. This transitional regime was designed to stabilize the country without making any drastic changes; however, it proved to be too weak. In 2015 the Houthi-Saleh coalition re-seized control of the Yemeni capital, provoking the civil war, with each side vying to preserve their own regime’s power.
A proxy war, at its core, is a local conflict between two sides, each with their own stakes and motivations. Like these larger countries, these local powers stand to gain more stability by winning the conflict, albeit more directly as one often becomes the state’s legitimate government.
Saudi Arabia’s Defense and Iran’s Offense
The Arab Spring presented a unique opportunity for Iran to tilt the power balance of the Middle East in its favor. As both the Arab Spring and Iranian revolution were fueled by the people’s dissatisfaction with the government, one might predict the recent developments to follow Iran’s pattern for revolution, and eventually government. Having allies to support the Iranian state on both a regional and international stage would further Iranian interests by making the country stronger, politically and economically.[ix]
The Houthis, as a marginalized Shia group, could be considered a potential Iranian ally. In fact, during the Houthis’ insurrections in the mid-2000s, the Yemeni government used the Houthis’ supposed Iranian connection as a rallying call for both international and Saudi support for his own administration— despite a lack of evidence.[x] While Iran has been vocal in its support for the Houthis’ cause, it has been cautious to show any evidence of direct involvement.[xi]
In contrast to Iran, Saudi Arabia has been very explicit about its interest and involvement in the war, as the country is certainly aware of what Iran has to gain— and lose— if the Houthis are successful.[xii] The Houthi-Saleh coalition operates in the Northern region of Yemen, which conveniently shares a border with Saudi Arabia. Having an Iranian puppet state in its backyard is a direct security threat to Saudi Arabia. Further, a decisive win for Saudi Arabia’s rookie leader, Mohammed bin Salman, would solidify his popularity with his people and would flex the country’s rarely used military muscle.[xiii]
Conclusion
Presently, Yemen is a playground for Saudi Arabia and Iran to hash out their conflicting interests. Saudi Arabia both fiscally and geographically is the largest power in the Middle East, and it's in their interest to keep it that way. Iran has the ambition and opportunity to outstrip Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region. Both of the warring regimes in Yemen are fighting to become the recognized government before the dust settles.
It is estimated that 2 million have been displaced and 16 thousand people have been killed in Yemen since 2015.[xiv] What started out as local dispute has grown beyond its original scope, as the Iran-Saudi rivalry inflames the existing struggles for dominance. Yemen has been at war with itself for years now, but the conflict both locally and regionally has been stirring for decades. It may take years for the Middle East to find its new equilibrium. Until then, the fighting will continue.
Bibliography
[i] Aziz El Yaakoubi. "Dozens Killed, including Children on a Bus, in Yemen Air Strikes." Reuters. August 10, 2018. Accessed November 20, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security/dozens-killed-including-children-on-a-bus-in-yemen. -air-strikes-idUSKBN1KU12U?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed: Reuters/worldNews (Reuters World News).
[ii] James L. Gelvin, The New Middle East: What Everyone Needs to Know. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), 129.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Gelvin, The New Middle East, 130.
[v] Helen Lackner and Daniel Martin Varisco, eds. Yemen and the Gulf States: the Making of a Crisis. (Berlin, German: Gerlach Press, 2018) 7-28.
[vi] Mahjoob Zweiri, “Iran and Political Dynamism in the Arab World: the Case of Yemen” (Digest of Middle East Studies, 2016), 10.
[vii] Christopher Boucek, “War in Saudi: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge” (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010), 2.
[viii] Gelvin, The New Middle East, 40-41.
[ix] Zweiri, “Iran and Political Dynamism,” 8.
[x] Boucek, “War in Saudi: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge”, 11.
[xi] Lackner and Varisco, Yemen and the Gulf States, 14.
[xii] Keynoush, Banafsheh. Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?. (Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016), 227.
[xiii] Ibid., 11.
[xiv] “Global Conflict Tracker."Council on Foreign Relations. January 4, 2019. Accessed January 05, 2019. https://www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker#!/conflict/war-in-yemen.