Protests & Pandemics: COVID-19 and Civil Disobedience in Russia and India
Protests & Pandemics:
COVID-19 and Civil Disobedience in Russia and India
By Michael Dekhtyar
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated rising trends of civil disobedience in many countries. While much of life as we know has been paused or almost completely changed, people around the world have spent the past year pushing back against sluggish economic growth, human rights violations, and authoritarian laws and regimes. For countries like Russia and India, civil disobedience has been transformed from a symptom of a deteriorating domestic situation into a nationwide controversy. Peaceful protest movements built on long-standing grievances and demands have been greatly impacted by the onset of COVID-19, whether through increased public discontent with economic inequalities and seemingly out-of-touch governments or through outrage over perceived overreach in government authority. No phenomena better exemplify these impacts than the pro-Navalny movement in Russia and the farmers’ protests in India.
Russia
In pre-pandemic Russia, popular discontent with the government had been brewing for years. Slow economic growth following a global collapse in oil prices combined with the high economic and political costs of the conflict in Ukraine (which provoked a devastating round of sanctions from Western countries) remain major sources of displeasure among the general public.[i] While the Russian economy has rapidly expanded and liberalized in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with a dramatic rise in wages for the burgeoning middle class, economic inequality continues to plague the country’s poor and middle class. A 2020 study showed that 83.8 percent of the Russian population believe that income inequality is harmful to the nation and to themselves, while 69.6 percent of Russians feel similarly regarding unequal access to medical care.[ii] Inequality torments the Russian public’s consciousness in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic—despite the country’s economic gains from international financial integration and economic globalization.
The onset of COVID-19 in Russia has exacerbated widespread economic inequality and set the stage for future instances of civilian protests. According to the World Bank, Russia’s national unemployment rate skyrocketed to 6.3 percent at the outset of the pandemic—the highest level in eight years—and the three enormous sectors of manufacturing, construction, and retail and hospitality services lost half a million jobs in total.[iii] Poverty also increased to a national rate of 13.2 percent in the second quarter of 2020. On a global level, inequality rose dramatically as a result of COVID-19, with billionaires increasing their total wealth by around $10.2 trillion while 150 million additional people were driven into poverty.[iv] In Russia, a country with the most billionaires per capita in the world, such a drastic increase in economic inequality will likely lead to further social unrest and widespread civil disobedience in the coming years if it is left unaddressed by the national government. [v]
The COVID-19 pandemic poured fuel into the tinder pile that is Russian domestic politics, but the spark that finally lit the blaze proved to be the plight of Alexei Navalny. Navalny, a Russian lawyer and activist, has become the leading political figure in the opposition movement against President Vladimir Putin.[vi] Navalny accuses the government of widespread corruption and illegal practices, and lobbies Western governments to halt the spread of Russian oligarchs’ “dirty money” internationally.[vii] While the government previously ignored the grassroots political support that Navalny achieved during the early years of his activism, Putin and his allies now see him as an active threat to the status quo. Navalny has endured constant harassment by the Russian courts and police (which he says are mere extensions of the national government’s campaign against him), along with multiple physical and chemical attacks on his person.[viii] Most recently, he has survived a seemingly state-sanctioned assassination attempt with Novichok, a deadly chemical agent often used by Russian intelligence operatives.[ix] Yet even the multiple attempts on his life have seemingly given Navalny a stronger platform; public support for his campaign surged after his near-fatal poisoning by Russian government agents in October, and his subsequent political persecution by the Russian government only gave him more visibility and traction with the populace at large. Navalny is currently imprisoned, charged with parole violations from a previous sentence—a claim he disputes. After embarking on a three-week hunger strike to protest the Russian government and his unjust political persecution, Navalny’s health rapidly deteriorated and he was transferred to a prison hospital by the authorities in response to domestic and international calls for proper medical treatment.[x]
The ramifications of Alexei Navalny’s political persecution have been enormous for the Russian government and police. Over the past few months, thousands of Russians across the country have turned out in droves to peacefully protest his mistreatment and imprisonment. Police have arrested over 1,700 protestors rallying in support of his campaign, though this has barely hindered the thousands more that have turned out in the streets of Moscow, St. Petersburg, and dozens of other cities across Russia.[xi] It’s clear to the world—and Vladimir Putin—that Navalny and his supporters in Russia will not go away quickly or quietly. Although the catalyst for the rapid rise in civil disobedience was Navalny’s imprisonment and persecution, the protestors have found common cause on a number of other issues: corruption in the government and in the police, kleptocratic corporate control of whole industries by wealthy oligarchs, an increasingly tense situation on the Ukrainian border, and increasing economic inequality as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[xii]
Economic inequality among Russians is a core issue of Navalny’s overall campaign. A video released just weeks ago by his staffers showed drone footage of what seemed to be a massive, opulent palace on the Black Sea used by Putin as a vacation home, complete with a casino, vineyard, ice hockey rink, and a roughly $1 billion price tag. The video immediately went viral in Russia, contributing to the long list of demands and grievances currently uniting many protestors on city streets. The outrage over the footage only intensified after Navalny’s campaign reported that the palace was gifted directly to Putin by wealthy oligarchs in the oil and gas sector and is currently owned and guarded by members of Russia’s federal security forces. As long as such visible, tangible symbols of Russia’s vast inequalities persist and propagate, the broader frustration with the country’s economic situation and social system will not subside as long as the painful impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession is broadly felt—something Navalny and his supporters seem to fully understand.[xiii]
India
In India’s case, civil disobedience remains an integral part of the country’s political system, persisting since the country’s colonial history. Mahatma Gandhi, one of the most revered advocates for peace in modern history, grounded his early 20th century campaign for Indian independence from the British Empire on the principles of civil disobedience, inspiring modern protest campaigns in the region. The past few months saw enormous national protests flood the capital of New Delhi, blockading roads and populating the streets with protestors, many of whom were farmers. The protests were sparked by the government’s passage of three “farm bills” late last year, which have the potential to lower food prices, loosen regulations on harvest markets, and end many governmental protections from private competitors.[xiv] Outraged by the rapid passage of the bills, which were predicted to result in severe price downturns and exclusion from wholesale food markets, dozens of Indian farmer unions have banded together in opposition to the legislation.[xv] Unions, activists, and 16 different opposition parties have placed enormous public pressure on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership to either repeal or greatly alter the bills to better protect India’s farmers. The public battle over the farm bills reached India’s Supreme Court, which in January temporarily suspended the contentious laws in an effort to restore stability and avert further social unrest. Modi’s government subsequently offered to delay implementation of the laws by 12 to 18 months in an attempt to resolve the protests via negotiation but its offer was rejected out of hand as too little and far too late, with the protesting farmers seeking the full repeal of the three laws.[xvi]
Regardless of these small victories, the protests have continued unabated, even as India undergoes a horrific second surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. As of April 22, India reported the highest rate of daily infections in the world to date, recording 314,835 new cases in the past 24 hours.[xvii] COVID-19 may have exacerbated the growth and intensity of India’s civil disobedience movements rather than slowing them, at least in the protests’ initial months. Farmers’ union leaders and activists claim that the government is merely using the virus as an excuse to prevent or disrupt planned protests in major urban areas in order to weaken the movement’s momentum without accepting the protesters' demands.[xviii] This is a powerful narrative—even if it may not be completely accurate—and may well serve as an effective rallying cry to whip up support among the general Indian public for more activism in the coming months. However, the COVID-19 surge is a recent phenomenon, and based on the latest trends in cases and deaths, the situation will only get worse. Whether the protestors will be discouraged by the nationwide second wave of the pandemic or co-opt newly introduced public health measures as a political measure remains to be seen.
What’s Next?
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an outsized impact on civil disobedience and peaceful protest movements across the world. In Russia, long-standing economic inequality and corruption, the brutal social and human cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the sudden shock of Alexei Navalny’s political persecution have prompted thousands of people to protest in the streets of Moscow, demanding reform, democratization, and transparency in the national government. In India, concerns over a devastating surge of COVID-19 have clashed with the demands of a massive protest movement of activists and unions aiming to avert a possible economic disaster for the country’s farming sector.
How the governments of Russia and India handle the drastic rise in civil disobedience and social unrest among their populations will reveal the true priorities, interests, and allegiances of each country’s political systems. Russian and Indian governments have two choices: to work with their citizens to resolve their grievances, or to violently suppress the protests through state-sanctioned force, potentially setting the stage for even more unrest in the future. Let’s hope they make the best choice.
Illustration by Talia Fishman
[i]“Ukraine Crisis: Thousands March in Moscow Anti-War Rally,” BBC, September 22, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29300213; Justin Kuepper, “What Caused the Russian Financial Crisis of 2014 and 2015,” The Balance, February 11, 2021, https://www.thebalance.com/what-caused-the-russian-financial-crisis-of-2014-and-2015-1979012.
[ii] Svetlana Mareeva, “Socio-Economic Inequalities in Modern Russia and Their Perception by the Population,” The Journal of Chinese Sociology 7, no. 10 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1186/s40711-020-00124-9.
[iii] “Russia’s Economy Loses Momentum Amid COVID-19 Resurgence, Says New World Bank Report,” World Bank, December 16, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/16/russias-economy-loses-momentum-amid-covid-19-resurgence-says-new-world-bank-report.
[iv] Elisabeth Howton and Mark Felsenthal, “COVID-19 to Add as Many as 150 Million Extreme Poor by 2021,” World Bank, October 7, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-million-extreme-poor-by-2021; Rupert Neate, “Billionaires’ Wealth Rises to $10.2 Trillion amid Covid Crisis,” The Guardian, October 7, 2020, sec. Business, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires.
[v] “Russian Federation,” World Inequality Database, accessed April 30, 2021, https://wid.world/country/russian-federation/.
[vi] Katheryn Weaver, “Alexei Navalny: Modern Liberal Nationalism,” GeoHistory, October 23, 2017, https://geohistory.today/alexei-navalny/.
[vii] Amy Mackinnon, “With Russia Protesting Navalny’s Arrest, Calls Mount to Target Putin’s Inner Circle,” Foreign Policy, August 25, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/25/russia-protests-navalny-arrest-putin-inner-circle/.
[viii] Alex Ward, “Who Is Alexei Navalny? The Leader Behind Russia’s Anti-Putin Protests, Explained.,” Vox, April 23, 2021, https://www.vox.com/22254292/alexei-navalny-prison-hunger-strike-end-russia-protests-vladimir-putin.
[ix] Luke Harding, “Navalny Says Russian Officer Admits Putting Poison in Underwear,” The Guardian, December 21, 2020, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/navalny-russian-agent-novichok-death-plot.
[x] Ann M. Simmons, “Alexei Navalny Hospitalized in Russia Three Weeks Into Hunger Strike,” Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/alexei-navalny-hospitalized-in-russia-three-weeks-into-hunger-strike-11618839052.
[xi] Vanessa Romo, “At Least 1,700 Protesters In Russia Arrested After Nationwide Anti-Putin Rallies,” NPR, April 22, 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989694331/at-least-1-700-protesters-in-russia-arrested-after-nationwide-anti-putin-rallies.
[xii] “Corruption Perceptions Index 2020,” Transparency International, 2021, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020; Anton Oleinik, “Corruption on the Road: A Case Study of Russian Traffic Police,” IATSS Research 40, no. 1 (July 1, 2016): 19–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2015.12.001; Sergei Guriev and Andrei Rachinsky, “The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, no. 1 (February 1, 2005): 131–50, https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330053147994; Zahra Ullah, Anna Chernova, and Eliza Mackintosh, “Russia Orders Troops Back to Base after Massive Buildup near Ukraine Border,” CNN, April 23, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/22/europe/russia-military-ukraine-border-exercises-intl/index.html.
[xiii] “Alexei Navalny: Millions Watch Jailed Critic’s ‘Putin Palace’ Film,” BBC, January 20, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55732296.
[xiv] “Farm Laws: Are India’s New Reforms a ‘death Warrant’ for Farmers?,” BBC, February 16, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54233080.
[xv] “‘Happened in US 40 Years Ago’: 87 US Farmers’ Unions Speak Out for Indian Farmers’ Protest,” The Wire, February 21, 2021, https://thewire.in/agriculture/usa-farmers-unions-msp-protests-reagan.
[xvi] Jessie Yeung, “Farmers across India Have Been Protesting for Months. Here’s Why,” CNN, March 26, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/10/asia/india-farmers-protest-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html.
[xvii] Nilanjana Bhowmick, “Why India’s Massive COVID-19 Surge Is Breaking Tragic Records,” National Geographic, April 23, 2021, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-indias-second-wave-became-the-worst-covid-19-surge-in-the-world.
[xviii] Mayank Bhardwaj, “Indian Farmers Vow to Carry on Months-Long Protest despite Concerns over Coronavirus,” Reuters, April 15, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-farmers-vow-carry-months-long-protest-despite-concerns-over-coronavirus-2021-04-15/; Anilesh S. Mahajan, “Farmers’ Protests as Potential Super Spreader?,” India Today, April 19, 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/farmers-protests-as-potential-super-spreader-1792763-2021-04-19.
